We’ve all heard the phrase “March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb.” Now, there is a new distinction between the beginning and end of March.
At the beginning of this month, none of us had heard the phrase “flatten the curve.” By the end of the month, we had all become acutely aware of the phrase, what it meant, the theory behind it, and the benefits to doing it. But how are we doing?
Well, it depends on where you are. The good news is Ohio seems to be doing comparatively well. One of the most authoritative timeline models for COVID-19 is from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) at the University of Washington. According to that organization’s modeling, Ohio will not exceed its capacity for hospital beds and ICU beds. Specifically, their best estimates indicate that 6,646 beds of the state’s total 14,290 beds will be needed, while 998 of the state’s total 1,238 ICU beds.
Of course, these are best estimates, but according to the chart below, the state’s hospital bed capacity easily meets the projected demand within the 95% confidence interval as shown in the purple shaded area. More tenuous is the ICU bed situation. As one can see in the graph, there are many instances within the 95% confidence interval (green shading), where the state’s ICU capacity could be exceeded.
Even though this chart shows comparatively good news for Ohio, the prognosis remains stark. This same model predicts 1,886 deaths from the virus in Ohio (which in a worst-case scenario could actually balloon to nearly 3,500) with a peak day of lethality projected to be April 19 with an estimated 68 deaths on just that one day.
