In a previous post, we looked at the early progress Ohio is making in the COVID-19 fight, according to IMHE modeling. Let’s now take a look a little closer to home and see how the Tri-County Area (Columbiana, Mahoning, and Trumbull) are doing.
This chart shows the curves of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in each county, along with the total across the entire region:
Next, let’s look at the same data on a logarithmic chart which will help to show changes in the speed of the expansion. We have also included the State of Ohio so that we can see how the region is doing compared to the rest of the state:
We can see that each county is largely on the same trajectory as the entire state and, therefore, can expect to see COVID-19 growth at about the same rate.
However, some differences can be seen in the following chart, which depicts the region’s and each county’s confirmed cases along with those of Ohio per capita:
As of the end of March, Columbiana County was doing well. Slightly better than the rest of the state, but much better than the rest of the tri-county region. As a matter of fact, Mahoning County has the most confirmed cases per capita of any county in Ohio. According to this data, as of the end of March, 1 of every 1,495 in Mahoning County have been diagnosed with a confirmed case of COVID-19, as opposed to 1 of every 6,792 in Columbiana County and 1 of every 5,316 people across the entire state.
Short term good news for Columbiana County, but what happens when those cases begin to migrate southward?